前面楼上讲的可能有道理，以前看到过类似文章，今天上网查了一下. 截取如下，不过是English, 自己看看吧, 2006 年8100人，离3000份差不多，但香港要多好多, 乘2好象不够，不知道2007年是否更多了. 不过2010年估计够呛。但现在人比以前少是真的.
http://chineseinvancouver.blogspot.com/2006/10/new-accurate-indicators-chinese.html
While some lawyers claim that the interest of Chinese immigrants coming to Canada is diminishing, latest immigration application stats (in persons) just released show a clear otherwise (
story in Chinese).
Application stats, which are crude figures where the effect of processing time and other factors haven't kicked in, are always a more accurate indicator of the "push" factor of immigration, i.e. the will, or the demand to move to Canada.
The numbers obtained from CIC are as follows, pls note they are in persons:
IMMIGRATION APPLICATION DATA (persons)
2004
2005
2006
to Sep 29
3/4 avg
3/4 avg
Beijing 7,957 5,968
7,646 5,735
8,107 Hong Kong 14,348 10,761
21,644 16,233
15,006 Beijing+HK 22,305 16,729 29,290 21,968 23,113 Taipei 3,551 2,663
3,495 2,621
2,421 New Delhi 41,262 30,947
37,522 28,142
28,217 Seoul 7,582 5,687
7,037 5,278
4,712
Source: CIC
* NOTE FROM SITEOWNER: THESE NUMBERS ARE EXCLUSIVELY OBTAINED AND CANNOT BE QUOTED WITHOUT PRIOR WRITTEN CONSENT FROM THE SITEOWNER. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.
These figures clearly show that the Chinese intention to immigrate has not slowed down, indeed, the application numbers received by Beijing up to Sep 29 has already exceeded the total number of applicants the office received over the full year of 2005.
If the three quarters numbers are used as a convenience tool to compare,
2006
over
2005 2006
over
2004
Beijing 41.37 35.85 Hong Kong -7.56 39.45 Beijing+HK 5.21 38.16 Taipei -7.64 -9.10 New Delhi 0.27 -8.82 Seoul -10.72 -17.14
The number of applications received in the first 3 quarters of 2006 has skyrocketed by 41.37% over the first 9-month average of 2005, and by 35.85% over same period of 2004.
On the other hand, the applications from New Delhi up to Sep 29, 2006 only slightly surpasses the numbers of 2005, and even a negative trend if compared with 2004.
Then why did lawyer Richard Kurland's numbers, obtained under Access to Information, could have convinced him to believe Chinese immigrants were turning away from Canada (
here)? And how did he gather the idea that India will soon surpass China as Canada's top source country?
A closer examination of Kurland's figures show that they are talking about "inventory" of cases pending processing at overseas offices. Kurland said:
The Beijing inventory in July 2004 was 37,124 persons; in April 2005-32,539 persons; and in June 2006-19,826 persons. Beijing’s inventory of persons is dramatically lower. The Hong Kong inventory in July 2004 was 47,260 persons; in April 2005-40,531 persons; and in June 2006-32,752 persons. Hong Kong’s inventory of persons is in freefall.
However, "inventory" of cases are those pending completion, which could have been stockpiled over many years.
David Ley, a UBC professor of Geography who is specialized in immigration studies, said the latest application figures (persons) should be heralded as the indicator for demand, not inventory.
Ley said that two facts shown in these numbers clearly point out that Chinese immigration will continue to rise, though might not be at a sharp upward curve as before. These two facts are: the total number of applications (persons) received by the Beijing office in the first 3 quarters of 2006 has surpassed the yearly total of 2005; and that the number of new applicants the Hong Kong office has got is remaining quite constant over the same period of 2005.
Beijing and Hong Kong together process the vast majority of immigration applications from PRC subjects.
Kangqing Zhang, researcher with the Asia Pacific Foundation, said the sudden drop in inventory must be a result of efforts to clear up backlogs. Zhang believes CIC has begun clearing up old files or inactive files. This is good news for immigrants.
Zhang was quoted last week by some media that he agreed that Chinese immigration has slowed down. He explained yesterday, however, that the reporters who asked him to comment about the trend last week told him those were "application figures", none of them indicated that those were "inventory".
Zhang said as applications are still on the rise, we cannot at this point conclude that Chinese have given up Canada as an immigration destination.
Lawyer Lawrence Wong pointed out that many stockpiled files are those visa officers had asked the applicants to fill in some more information but hadn't heard back from the applicants. A sudden large number of drop in inventory means that CIC is finally cleaning out old mess.